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Quarterback ADP Values

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Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman had a terrific breakout year, especially when you consider that both his starting receivers were rookies, and he had a rookie runner in the backfield. To see Freeman throw for twenty five touchdowns and only six interceptions, in this situation, should tell you the type of future player he will probably end up being.

While I love the long term value for Freeman, I do believe we will see a small slide back season in 2011, as fellow NFL teams will be pay much more attention (respect) to this group than last year. It’s hard for even the best quarterbacks achieve what Freeman did a year ago, but as the Buccaneers start to open the offense up, he will probably go through a learning curve.

Because of the growth curve Freeman still projects to have, I don’t believe his top ten ADP value at quarterback is worthy. Look to him as more of a top fifteen option which would make him a quality backup in ten to twelve team leagues. Below I have more of the quarterbacks’ Mock Draft Central’s, early summer ADP values listed for undervalued and overvalued options, based on the rankings.

Overvalued

Ben Roethlisberger (7th), Josh Freeman (10th), Jay Cutler (11th), Donovan McNabb (16th), David Garrard (18th),

Ben Roethlisberger is a top ten quarterback heading into fantasy drafts this season, however I wouldn’t look to him as a draft-able option over Matt Schaub and certainly not before Tony Romo is off the board. The Steelers still have productive weapons around Roethlisberger, but they have a great defense, and that will hurt their passing offense when they are sitting on leads, late in games.

Jay Cutler has the talent to be a top ten fantasy quarterback, but he’s unlikely to get a true No.1 receiver in free agency for the third year in a row, and his offensive line is a work in progress. Look to Cutler as closer to the 20th best quarterback to draft this season.

We don’t know where Donovan McNabb will end up, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a backup or a starter in a situation where a young quarterback is ready to take the job. We need to see where he ends up to get a better idea of his fantasy, but he’s unlikely to make the top twenty to begin the season.

The Jaguars are likely to roll with David Garrard as the starting quarterback to begin the season, but if they should fall out of the playoff hunt, Jacksonville will go with rookie Blaine Gabbert down the stretch. With Mike Sims-Walker failing (free agent, not expected back) to provide Garrard with a respectable No.1 receiver, this quarterback is hurt by not having a big play option in the passing game.

Undervalued

Philip Rivers (6th), Matt Ryan (14th), Eli Manning (13th),

No way would I have Tom Brady over Philip Rivers as the Patriots are too balanced of a team to be a regular pass aggressive offense weekly. While Brady is clearly better for fantasy than his early days, New England is looking more like the team they had back in their Super Bowl runs and the Chargers need to rely on Rivers arm to make the playoffs.

Matt Ryan is worthy of being a starting quarterback in ten team leagues as the addition of Julio Jones gives him added big play ability in the offense. Michael Turner is likely slowing down as he showed signs of up and down play a year ago. Now in his 4th season, Ryan is ready to crank his touchdown total closer to 30 and his passing yards around 3,800 plus.

I would have Eli Manning as high as the 8th best quarterback to draft this season if Steve Smith were healthy and back (free agent) with the team this year. Smith is likely to re-sign with the Giants, but he’s projected to start the season on the PUP list. Look to Manning as a nice value selection for a late starter in twelve team leagues, as he has two solid receivers and understands how to throw less experienced pass catchers open in tight coverage because he understands his offense so well.

That about wraps things up for now. Take a look at the average draft position values below and be sure to click on the links for individual quarterback outlooks for the 2011 fantasy football season. Throughout the summer, we will have more ADP value articles from other sites around the web so be sure to check back for those updates on our ADP home page.

2011 Quarterback ADP Values

Player

Draft Pos

ADP

Earliest

Latest

1

Michael Vick

7

7.30

7

8

2

Aaron Rodgers

10

10.70

10

12

3

Drew Brees

22

22.60

22

24

4

Peyton Manning

26

26.70

26

28

5

Tom Brady

38

38.20

34

40

6

Philip Rivers

41

41.55

41

43

7

Ben Roethlisberger

71

72.00

71

73

8

Tony Romo

76

77.10

76

78

9

Matt Schaub

85

86.10

80

90

10

Josh Freeman

101

102.80

101

104

11

Matthew Stafford

103

104.90

103

106

12

Jay Cutler

105

107.35

105

110

13

Eli Manning

106

108.30

106

110

14

Matt Ryan

108

109.80

90

114

15

Joe Flacco

110

111.25

106

113

16

Sam Bradford

128

132.75

124

-ND-

17

Matt Cassel

149

164.20

136

-ND-

18

Donovan McNabb

158

190.10

141

-ND-

19

Ryan Fitzpatrick

168

194.15

145

-ND-

20

David Garrard

170

195.15

149

-ND-

Honorable Mention

Kevin Kolb

Mark Sanchez

Kyle Orton

More 2011 Fantasy Football Draft Tips

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