Running Back ADP Values

Posted by: Sean Douglas Posted date: June 24, 2011 In: ADP Values, Fantasy Football | comment : 0

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As we head into the summer it’s time to take a first look at the ADP value for running backs to help us all start to get a feel for where players are going in mock drafts. These ADP values were provided to us by Mock Draft Central. At the top of the list Arian Foster is going in many leagues as the top option to draft after a huge breakout season in 2010.

In many mock drafts around the web, you will find Foster, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles going as the first four picks, let alone the first four running backs off the board.

Because the ADP values below are a little self explanatory I wanted to get into those runners I feel are under and overvalued on the list at this point in the summer. No running back on this list is more undervalued (in my opinion) than Colts’ rookie Delone Carter from Syracuse. The Colts are expected to move on from free agent Joseph Addai, and they are disappointed with former first round pick Donald Brown to the point that they might even let him go after this season.

While I expect Brown to play a little better this season, his lack of productive running inside the tackles and pass protection won’t keep him on the field over the physical Carter. Upper management as already talked about Carter being the teams late game runner to finish with a lead (Colts should be winning over ten once again), and he will be the teams’ goal line back.

Addai had regular double digit touchdown seasons, when he was healthy enough to play most of the regular season, so opportunities will be there for Carter to be a regular starting flex play option. As you can see by the listing below, Carter failed to make the top 56 running backs on MDC list, and I’ve yet to see him selected in the couple ESPN mock drafts I’ve partaken in this summer.

If the Colts fail to bring in anyone significant in free agency (I don’t expect them to do so) Carter is a big time sleeper you need to pay attention too and have on your list to snag in the late rounds.

Overvalued ADP RB’s

Maurice Jones-Drew (6th), Knowshon Moreno (18th), Felix Jones (20th), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (21st), Thomas Jones (30th), Ryan Torain (52nd),

I’ve been steadfast in my belief that Maurice Jones-Drew won’t carry the football over 300 times this season, nor have the regular explosion and power around the goal line as we’ve seen in the past, because of his knee injury. Selecting MJD as your first round pick, is to believe that he will take on a full load and bounce back from his touchdown total last season. If you believe he will get the job don, fine, but it’s worth looking to safer options to start your team.

The Broncos are expected to bring in an early down runner in Denver as they view Knowshon Moreno as a third down back, after his failures in this first two seasons. Don’t look to Moreno as anything more than a backup this season.

It would help Felix Jones if the Cowboys part ways with Marion Barber but rookie DeMarco Murray may cut into his reception total this season. Jones has had problems staying on the field, and I’m not sure if he can touch the football from more than just over 200 total touches in a season.

Just read my write-up on BGE on our standard mock draft results, to see why I don’t like him as a starting option on your team. The Patriots can’t be trusted in the running game for dependable starters, with four guys in the backfield.

Thomas Jones should see a decrease in touches as he looked old at the end of last season. He may get his top work on the year in the first month of the season but Jamaal Charles will see more touches this year.

Many may look to Ryan Torain as the top option to draft in Washington but how can you rust the coaching staff and Torain’s health to be a starter on your team? Look to rookie Roy Helu as a late round stash.

Undervalued ADP RB’s

Delone Carter (Un-ranked), Roy Helu (Un-ranked), Mark Ingram (29th), Jahvid Best (28th), Daniel Thomas (35th), DeAngelo Williams (22nd),

I’m usually not high on rookie running backs but as you can see four of the six undervalued runners on this list are rookies. Of the four, Mark Ingram is the one I beleve that can give you top ten production this season, as I believe the Saints will cut this kid lose if he has a hot camp. I can understand those of you that fail to trust Coach Sean Peyton to us one guy, but this team had major problems in the running game last year, and he wants to change that from week one on.