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Wide Receiver ADP Values

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Expectations were high for Michael Crabtree heading into his second year as a pro with many fantasy owners nabbing him up as their No.2 receiver. Why not, as the 49ers showed flashes of returning to success and many NFL experts had San Francisco walking away with their division. Well, things didn’t work out as planned and Crabtree’s chemistry issues with quarterback Alex Smith proved to be problematic as early as week one of the season.

For all the talent Crabtree has, I would love to see him participate with his fellow teammates more often as he’s been criticized by fellow players like Vernon Davis, at times in the past, for not being on the field(resting minor neck injury), when preparing for the season.

Coming into the 2011 fantasy football season, I find Crabtree’s standard redraft league ADP value to be fair as he’s listed as the 27th receiver going on Mock Draft Central’s rankings. Finally, the 49ers have an offensive minded Head Coach in Jim Harbaugh, and he will change the third grade street ball offense this team ran last season.

Below I have a listing of receivers I believe are overvalued and undervalued from the ADP trends listed in this article.

Overvalued

Miles Austin (7th), Mike Williams – Tampa (10th), Marques Colston (12th), Jeremy Maclin (13th), Brandon Lloyd (15th), Sidney Rice (19th), Kenny Britt (22nd), Steve Smith – NY (31st), Malcom Floyd (30th), Jerome Simpson (34th), Legedu Naanee (47th),

If you think Miles Austin is a clear No.1 receiver for fantasy football you might be disappointed for the second season in a row. As a matter of fact, I’m not sure Austin will be the top producing receiver on his team as Dez Bryant has more talent and will probably get single coverage against teams No.2 corner. Austin is worthy of a top ten ranking, but he may frustrate you if you expect him to return to his 2009 numbers.

Mike Williams was a sleeper of mine last summer, and he cashed in for a big year with double digit touchdowns and is clearly Josh Freeman’s favorite target. That said, Williams won’t sneak up on opposing teams this year, and I’m always concerned about problem child receivers, throwing fits when things get challenging. Hopefully, that isn’t the case for Williams, but you should look to his as a No.2 receiver and not a No.1 this year.

Don’t look to Marques Colston as a top twenty fantasy receiver anymore, as he’s had five knee surgeries in as many years and is recovering from his second micro-fracture knee surgery this off-season. Colston got off to a horrible start last year, and the Saints spread the football around too much for any receiver to be counted on as even a No.2 receiver. Speaking of number two receivers, Malcom Floyd had himself a decent season with the Chargers last year, but he’s a free agent now and last year was probably a career year.

The Broncos quarterback situation is up in the air and Josh McDaniels is no longer around to provide this offense with a creative passing attack. Time to be concerned about Brandon Lloyd as a start worthy option, especially if Kyle Orton leaves in free agency.

If free agent (expected back with Giants) Steve Smith was healthy coming into the season, I would have no problem drafting him around the 30th best receiver. However, that isn’t the case as Smith is expected to start the season on the PUP list while rehabbing a leg injury from the end of last season.Don’t draft Smith this year.

It seems early ADP trends have Jerome Simpson going as the top receiver to draft in Cincinnati after he finished the season strong. I’m not a fan of Simpson and, unless Carson Palmer comes back, I don’t recommend you look to him as a worthy option to put on your squad.

Undervalued

Dwayne Bowe (8th), Mike Wallace (11th), Vincent Jackson (17th), Wes Welker (24th), Mario Manningham (37th), Julio Jones (56th), Braylon Edwards (48th), Jordy Nelson (un-rated),

It seems many experts are knocking Dwayne Bowe because he has some slow stretches last season and the team added rookie Jonathan Baldwin in the draft. Bowe struggled early as the Chiefs were in a super conservative offense, but once they opened things up he want on to have a ridiculous seven game run. He did fade for a few games after that but that was because his quarterback Matt Cassel had emergency appendectomy surgery, and it took him about a month to return to his previous form. Look for Bowe to have another big season, as the guy with 15 touchdowns from a year ago disserves to be considered as a top five receiver in standard league play.

Mike Wallace and Vincent Jackson are in great situations for success, and because they play with great quarterbacks and balanced offenses, they should have top end yard per catch averages in the league. Wallace is a top ten receiver for fantasy this season and Jackson is an early No.2 receiver in ten team leagues, as he’s looking for his big contract as a free agent next spring.

Look to Steve Smith’s ADP trend as the reason why Mario Manningham is going so low as this receiver was on fire to end last year and had around 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns in all. Manningham is a worthy top twenty receiver this year but can probably be had as a flex play option on draft day. His ADP value will trend up as we move deeper into August.

Braylon Edwards and Jordy Nelson aren’t getting love at this point in time but that should change as we head deeper into the summer. The Packers are looking to make Nelson the No.2 receiver as James Jones is not expected back with the team and Donald Driver is a No.3 receiver at this point in his career. We need to see where Edwards ends up in free agency, but I still believe he has the talent to be a No.2 receiver in fantasy football. Hopefully, Edwards will be smart and get with a better quarterback and pass friendly offense to help his production.

2011 Wide Receiver ADP Values / Trends

Player

Draft Pos

ADP Value

Earliest

Latest

1

Roddy White

13

13.25

13

14

2

Andre Johnson

16

15.70

12

17

3

Calvin Johnson

17

17.10

17

18

4

Hakeem Nicks

19

19.30

19

20

5

Greg Jennings

21

21.30

21

23

6

Reggie Wayne

23

23.50

23

24

7

Miles Austin

25

25.65

25

27

8

Dwayne Bowe

28

27.65

27

29

9

Larry Fitzgerald

30

30.15

29

32

10

Mike Williams (TB)

31

31.45

31

33

11

Mike Wallace

34

34.45

34

36

12

Marques Colston

35

35.65

35

37

13

Jeremy Maclin

36

36.90

36

38

14

Steve Johnson

37

37.90

37

39

15

Brandon Lloyd

39

39.90

39

41

16

DeSean Jackson

40

40.05

36

42

17

Vincent Jackson

42

42.30

42

43

18

Brandon Marshall

43

43.30

43

44

19

Sidney Rice

48

48.50

48

50

20

Dez Bryant

50

50.95

50

52

21

Santonio Holmes

51

52.20

52

54

22

Kenny Britt

56

56.35

55

57

23

Percy Harvin

57

57.95

57

60

24

Wes Welker

58

58.45

55

61

25

Austin Collie

62

62.35

61

65

26

Anquan Boldin

63

63.30

62

66

27

Michael Crabtree

66

66.10

65

67

28

Mike Williams (Sea)

67

67.90

67

69

29

Pierre Garcon

69

69.55

69

71

30

Malcom Floyd

70

71.20

70

73

31

Steve Smith (NY)

73

73.85

73

75

32

Santana Moss

74

74.95

74

76

33

Deion Branch

81

82.65

81

84

34

Jerome Simpson

83

85.05

84

87

35

Steve Smith (Car)

84

85.80

84

88

36

Jacoby Ford

89

90.90

90

93

37

Robert Meachem

90

91.90

91

94

38

Hines Ward

92

93.95

92

96

39

Mario Manningham

95

96.55

94

99

40

A.J. Green

96

97.65

96

100

41

Randy Moss

99

100.85

99

103

42

Johnny Knox

102

103.95

102

105

43

Mike Sims-Walker

104

106.15

105

108

44

Nate Burleson

109

110.55

108

113

45

Davone Bess

113

115.45

113

117

46

Danny Amendola

118

120.90

119

125

47

Legedu Naanee

125

128.05

124

140

48

Braylon Edwards

143

155.80

109

-ND-

49

Arrelious Benn

154

187.05

143

-ND-

50

Terrell Owens

156

188.70

146

-ND-

51

Derrick Mason

160

191.25

133

-ND-

52

Jabar Gaffney

162

191.70

146

-ND-

53

James Jones

163

192.70

151

-ND-

54

Ben Obomanu

165

193.20

141

-ND-

55

Mike Thomas

166

193.50

154

-ND-

56

Julio Jones

169

194.50

127

-ND-

57

Danario Alexander

178

203.85

161

-ND-

Honorable Mention

Jordy Nelson

Titus Young

Torrey Smith

Leonard Hankerson

Anthony Armstrong

Jonathan Baldwin

Donald Driver

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