ESPN Mock Draft Analysis
Another mock draft up as I took part in an eight team mock over on ESPN.com, and have the results listed below. While free mock drafts on ESPN are useful, they are clearly not the final stamp on exactly where players are going to end up at your live draft. However, I find it interesting to see which players are going high, and which players may be falling down. If anything, mock drafts can give you a bird’s eye view, as to the players whom you may have to draft a little earlier than you thought, to get them, or maybe you can drop down and get some players cheaper than you anticipated.
No example of a players change in value can I give you than to look at Arian Foster just last year. While I was high on Foster, before Ben Tate was injured. His stock went through the roof after the Tate was done for the year and Foster started to flash his ability in preseason games. I actually failed to get Foster in a few leagues last year, if only because his value seemed to go higher and higher, almost daily.
What was a late round stash, became a mid round must, then turned into a fifth round (or higher) lock. Heck in one Auction league I was in, I even budgeted 23 dollars (200 cap) to get him and someone actually picked him up for 28 dollars! While Foster hadn’t proven many things for a full season, he sure as heck turned out to be more than a bargain for what looked to be a crazy fluctuation in price, from the start of August to the first week of September.
I’m not sure if we will see another player do that this summer, but one rookie that could watch his value rise if Saints’ Mark Ingram. The Saints are going to chuck Reggie Bush to the curb, when free agency gets going and while Pierre Thomas should be in practice and on the field, I anticipate, he won’t be able to play at the level we knew from years ago, because his ankle is still not ready.
Ingram should be a (dare, I say) feature back this season and has a crazy run of easy games to play, after the first two weeks of the season. Look for the Saints to feature Ingram in the preseason and especially in the first half of this year, because they want to correct their problems in the running game. This makes Ingram a major steal in the ninth round, of eight-team leagues, as he went in this mock draft.
I don’t believe you will see Ingram go that low in your real draft, even at this point in the summer, but he is clearly a value as prominent sites, around the web, consistently have him around the 25th – 30th best back to select this season. We have him as the 18th best running back, and he could move higher, if he takes firm control of the starting job, this preseason.
More Mock Draft Notes
All Running Backs In First Round
One interesting strategy you can take from being in an eight-team league is that you all but guaranteed to get a quarterback who has a chance to give you 4,000 yards passing and around 30 touchdowns on the season. Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Tony Romo should be the main quarterbacks to select on draft day, and all of them have had big season in the past, and have the talent around them to repeat that success in 2011.
That leaves only one team without one of those quarterbacks, but the good news is theirs some a few capable options at quarterback who can provide you sound success at a cheep price.
Understanding all this, it makes sense that the first round was truly dominated by running backs as in standard league play to don’t get points for receptions. Nabbing top running backs is always a priority, and even more so when you have to feel like you have production at quarterback in the bag, before you even get to your draft.
What’s the Deal with Team Five?
Like in many mock drafts, you will see some players fly off the board that have no business being taken at that point. Team five selected Ryan Torain in the second round and then Matt Ryan in the third round. Both are obvious reaches. Now you could look at this two ways, the first since this owner was trying to F with the draft for everyone else. Could be.
The second option is that they just wanted to try some crazy theory to see what happened if they actually did that, and how their team would turn out. In the end, this is part of what partaking in a free ESPN type mock draft is about, as you basically have play money and can test out crazy ideas. Just another example of why you can only put so much stock into a mock draft, but again, they are interesting, and heck, it’s getting time for fantasy football again, so it’s fun.
More 2011 Fantasy Football Draft Tips