Mock Draft Results – 1st Round
The more things change the more they stay the same, as running backs dominated the first round of his ten team mock draft. Arian Foster was the first running back off the board as it seems recent trends online, show fantasy owners are unfazed by Foster’s recent hammy setback. Below you will find my thoughts on each player selected in the first round of our mock draft results, with their respective ADP value from Mock Draft Central listed.
1. Arian Foster (ADP 1.27): It looks like Arian Foster has separated himself a bit from Adrian Peterson in recent mock drafts, despite his minor hamstring flair up this week. With plenty of time to get his hamstring healthy (listed day to day) Foster is ready for another strong year and a big payday next off-season.
2. Adrian Peterson (ADP 1.99): With left tackle Bryant McKinnie being released because of weight issues, and left guard Steve Hutchenson rumored to take a pay cut because he’s declined in skills, it’s time to be concerned about Adrian Peterson’s offensive line. Sure, Peterson received an upgrade at quarterback, but it’s not guarantee that Donovan McNabb will return to the level of play that made him a Pro Bowl quarterback in Philadelphia.
Peterson is still a great player, but it will be a challenge for him to provide fantasy owners with productive numbers when he faces top run defenses like the Packers.
3. Jamaal Charles (ADP 3.21): In our recent re-rank updates, I have Jamaal Charles ahead of Peterson as I believe the young stud running back is a better home-run hitter, and has a better overall team around him for success. It also doesn’t hurt that Charles plays in one of the easier divisions in football, and he should have no problem posting over 1,800 all-purpose yards.
All Charles needs to do is prove he can post double digit touchdowns to become a true elite fantasy option, and I look for that to happen this year.
4. Chris Johnson (ADP 4.14): Chris Johnson wants a new contract and of all the players in the league in need of a new deal, Johnson has to be the first name on the list. This guy has done nothing but post terrific numbers in his first three seasons and is one of the bigger names in the game of football.
Not only does Johnson if the Titans great play, but he keeps butts in seats and gives the team a National name to stamp on their product. It’s a little ridiculous that it’s taken this long for the Titans to re-up with Johnson, but I guess that’s why they’re in a losing situation right now.
If there is a player who can miss time deep into camp and still play at a top-end level when he returns, it’s Johnson, so don’t worry too much about the holdout. What you do need to worry about is his quarterback situation, as Matt Hasselbeck isn’t likely to last a full season, and when he’s out of the lineup, it’s going to be hard for Tennessee to move the football.
5. LeSean McCoy (ADP 8.88): I had the fifth pick in this mock draft and even though this is a standard league for scoring, I still took LeSean McCoy over Ray Rice and Rashard Mendenhall. If you look below Mendenhall has a high ADP value, but for my money, I wanted McCoy as the Eagles are set to fly, and personally, I’m not a fan of what Medenhall tweeted in the off-season. Hard to route for a guy who posts something like that.
6. Ray Rice (ADP 9.90): Just after this mock draft the Ravens signed veteran Ricky Williams, but according to OC Cam Cameron Ray Rice will be the teams goaline back. With the addition of full back Vonta Leach (formally with the Texans) Rice has an upgrade over LeRon McClain (productive in his own right, went to Chiefs), and he should be viewed as one of the top six running backs to own.
7. Michael Vick (ADP 7.26): Many have weighed in on the debate for who is the true number one quarterback this summer as Michael Vick and Aaron Rodgers are flip flopping as the top option from draft to draft. For my money, I would still go with Rodgers, but it’s hard to deny Vick’s potential and the points he scored per game, when on the field in 2010.
With the addition of Giants’ slot receiver Steve Smith, Vick has another weapon, but it will take until at least mid-October before Smith is ready to come off the PUP list. I’m also a little concerned about Jeremy Maclin health as the Eagles are being quiet about his absence on the field, but still maintain he will be ready for the start of the season.
8. Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP 6.89): And the bust of the 2011 season goes to…..It’s not that I don’t like Maurice Jones-Drew, but I don’t feel that he will be able to carry his normal workload this season, coming off micro-fracture knee surgery. Don’t be surprised if Jones-Drew breakdown as we go deeper into the season, and don’t expect the knee to bounce back until he’s had ample time off his feet and possibly another clean surgery.
9. Rashard Mendenhall (ADP 5.85): Not the brightest of the bunch but Rashard Mendenhall can sure play some football and is going to produce on a winning team. While Mendenhall lacks the big play, he should still be a good bet for over 300 carries, double digit scores and consistency.
10. Miles Austin (ADP 26.34): This is too high for Miles Austin as he’s clearly not the best receiver you can draft. This selection was by a live person, but they may have been testing out some theory. This is a good time to point out that mock drafts are great for trying out different things, as it’s basically play money.
That said, Austin should have a productive season as Tony Romo and the offense should bounce back in big way and I expect them to get things going right off the bat. Look for Austin to post better numbers than he did a year ago, even though Dez Bryant may end up as the top fantasy option on this team.
More 2011 Fantasy Football Draft Tips