Mock Draft Results – 5th Round
41. Mike Williams (Tampa) (ADP 32.45) - Mike Williams had a great rookie season, but I’m a little concerned that fantasy owners are expecting too much from him this season. As far as this mock draft goes, landing him as a fifth-round pick is solid value but as you can see next to Williams name, his ADP has him going a round higher than that, in most mocks.
Even if Williams never has the maturity problems he displayed with Syracuse he will have to deal with being the top priority to stop from opposing defenses. While some have the Buccaneers as a possible wild-card team, I think this will be a year of growth for a young group on both sides of the ball. If you look to Williams as a No.2 receiver, that is a respectable value, just don’t take him as your No.1 receiver this summer.
42. Marques Colston (ADP 36.83) – I’m not a fan of Marques Colston, and I strongly suggest you stay away from him this year. Colston had his second micro-fracture knee surgery in his career this off-season, and has had five knee surgeries (last five years) in his time with the Saints.
Both Colston and Coach Sean Peyton have admitted they thought his knee would be in better shape that it is currently, so view Colston as a depth option and NOT a player to want to start on your squad. That basically means someone else will likely land him on draft day, as his value is inflated because of the quarterback, he has.
43. DeSean Jackson (ADP 39.31) - With Jeremy Maclin having concerning health issues, I’m starting to like DeSean Jackson’s odds of creeping into the top ten receivers, for standard scoring leagues. The Eagles signed Steve Smith formally of the Giants, and he’s expected to start the season on the PUP list.
Look for Michael Vick to target his top receiver early and often this year, as the Eagles passing game is set up to thrive on the big play.
44. Shonn Greene (ADP 55.76) - I don’t care how many people in the Jets organization believe Shonn Greene is the teams “bell cow” because they said the same thing last summer. If Greene has a solid year, he won’t be on my team, and I suggest you pass on him, unless he should fall into the seventh round.
My biggest problem with Greene is his average of two touchdowns a season over his first two years. While LaDainian Tomlinson isn’t the running back he once was, he still has a nose for the end zone, and will be a threat to steal opportunities for Greene. Those goal line carries will be essential for Greene, as he won’t be used in the passing game and other running backs will be in the mix throughout each game.
45. Dez Bryant (ADP 50.17) – If you can snag Dez Bryant up around the fifth round, I highly suggest to invest in him, as I did in this mock draft. Bryant will likely out produce Miles Austin this season, as defenses will lineup up their top corner on the veteran and leave Bryant against single coverage.
This should be a huge season for Bryant, if he can stay on the field and play through nagging injuries that cost him time a year ago. I believe that can happen as Bryant seemed to be in decent health when he played back in college.
46. Jeremy Maclin (ADP 38.04) – As we move deeper into the month of August, the news continues to get worse on Jeremy Maclin’s outlook for this season. The Eagles are being quiet about what’s going on health wise with Maclin, but he’s gone back to his home town for further examination.
Let’s hope for the best with Maclin’s health and a speedy recovery, but if he fails to improve before your draft, it’s highly advisable that you drop him out of the first 25 to 30 receivers on your cheat sheet, and maybe out of the top 40 if you draft just before the season begins.
47. Santonio Holmes (ADP 51.84) - Re-signing with the Jets will provide Santonio Holmes will respectable value, and he’s a clear top twenty receiver for fantasy leagues. Holmes was the Jets best receiver down the stretch and now with a year under his belt working with Mark Sanchez, the two should have even better chemistry.
48. Ryan Grant (ADP 54.08) - While some had James Starks as a possible threat to start over Ryan Grant, the Packers moved quickly to tab Grant as the teams starting tailback, when the lockout ended. I’m concerned that Grant will have a hard time posting over six touchdowns this season, but he should find his way over 1,000 yards rushing.
49. Brandon Lloyd (ADP 41.25) - It’s was hard to know what to expect from Brandon Lloyd this summer, as Kyle Orton was projected to be on the move and Tim Tebow as likely to be the teams starting quarterback. Now, Orton is likely to stay with the team and Lloyd is a clear top twenty receiver.
If you looked at his numbers from a year ago, Lloyd performed like a top five receiver but judging by his ADP value, many fantasy owners don’t believe a repeat is in store. I find that outlook to be a responsible projection, as Lloyd has basically been irrelevant throughout most of his careers, but he should be a legit top twenty producer with Orton around.
50. Percy Harvin (ADP 58.66) – Talk about a receiver who has seen his fantasy value move up in recent weeks. With the addition of Donovan McNabb, Percy Harvin now has a viable veteran to get him the football as rookie Christian Ponder will sit on the bench. Throw in that Sidney Rice is gone to the Seahawks, and Harvin is the clear number one receiver on the Vikings.
Now in his third season, Harvin should end the year as one of the top twenty receivers for fantasy football leagues. Look for Harvin’s ADP value to climb from his current standing, but you should target him no high that the fifth round, as a late No.2 to early No.3 receiver. I find him to be an ideal early No.3 receiver if you can get him as around this point in your draft.
More 2011 Fantasy Football Draft Tips