2012 Mock Draft – Overall Results
Photo By: Icon SMI
As we close in on the summer, it’s time to take a first look at mock draft trends in our ten team redraft mock draft, hosted on Fantasy Football Calculator. Below I have a photo of the fifteen round mock; Reddog was slated as the third team to draft, and I was penciled in at the eight slot.
For my personal results, I must have had my dynasty draft still on my mind (currently in a 16 team, IDP / PPR dynasty draft), because I selected five freaking rookies! While I likely won’t do that in my real drafts this summer, it is a good time to bring up some of those rookies, and possible breakout options this year, and we will get into some of that as I will breakdown the first six rounds of the draft, post by post, with links below.
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Above you will see the scoring rolls for this mock draft, it’s basically a standard scoring league with three starting receivers and no flex. You commonly see this format on websites like Yahoo, but in recent years the flex position has become a more popular format over the three receivers.
As it currently stands, most fantasy owners in ten to twelve, team leagues should have no problem starting three receivers because of the depth at the position. Expect this trend to continue, as teams use more spread formations to create miss match opportunities.
With the emergence of Victor Cruz in the slot, another wrinkle has been added to the value of this position, because of his consistent vertical presence from this position. Receivers like rookie Joe Adams of Carolina, come to mind as a possible breakout star in fantasy leagues from this spot on the field, but he likely won’t have a big production this year.
Below I have a quick writeup for each player selected by Reddog and myself in this draft. Again refer to the round by round links above for more player information.
Reddog’s Team (Third Pick)
1. LeSean McCoy – Despite talk about LeSean McCoy seeing a reduction in touches, fantasy owners shouldn’t let that stop them from acquiring one of the elite three at the running back position. Furthermore, I’m not sold the Eagles will reduce his touches, as it sounds like a nice thing to say during the offseason, but when you’re trying to win football games, you want your best players on the field.
2. Greg Jennings –A leg injury cut short what was another great season from Greg Jennings. I don’t care if Jordy Nelson had a monster season, he did so because of Jennings on the other side.
While Nelson will have a solid season, don’t expect him to come close to the touchdown total he had last year and Jennings is worthy of viewing as a top five option.
3. Matthew Stafford –Who knows maybe fourth string running back Joique Bell will move up the ranks and give the Lions a formidable ground game. Likely not going to happen and with Javid Best, Mikel Leshoure and Kevin Smith all having health concerns, it’s probable the Lions will lean on Matthew Stafford’s arm again.
I don’t like the Lions odds of making the playoffs but they should be in the mix in December and from a fantasy stand point that’s all that matters. If they do make the post season Stafford may have to throw for 6,000 yards this year!
Scary thing is he has the physical tools and players around him to do that if the offensive line is up for giving him consistent pass protection.
4. Frank Gore –Ride him until the wheels fall off, because when they do it’s not going to be a pretty sight for Frank Gore’s fantasy prospects. With potentially Brandon Jacobs, Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James behind him, expect the 49ers to give Gore 18 touches a game as long as he flashes the skills he had in the first half of last year.
I think he will do that early because he’s had the entire offseason to rest, but as the seasons wears on Gore is likely to break down. When that happens it only makes sense to use a heavy committee with talent stockpiled behind him.
If Jacobs should make the team he would also pose a threat to Gores goal line touches, something to keep in mind.
5. Dwayne Bowe – Another contract situationto keep an eye on as Dwayne Bowe doesn’t seem happy with this franchise tag. Can’t blame him, but hopefully we will see him get to camp on time. If so, Bowe stands in as a quality late WR2 to early WR3 addition.
Quarterback Matt Cassel needs a productive rushing attack to set up the passing game, and he should get that with Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis playing against the easiest schedule vs. the run.
Does strength of schedule mean anything? In this case it does, as the Chiefs had the easiest schedule on paper before the 2010 season, and found great success on the ground.
It took Bowe a little while to get started that year, but when he did we saw one of the greatest seven game runs in the history of fantasy football from a receiver. Maybe that won’t happen again, but Bowe is primed for a bounce back year if he gets on the field in time for camps.
6. Brandon Pettigrew – A better PPR option, Brandon Pettigrew will be good for up to 80 receptions again as Matthew Stafford’s security blanket in short to intermediate routes in the middle of the field.
7. Antonio Brown – Wallace may be the top receiver in this offense, but it is Antonio Brown that will lead the team in receptions, and could hold WR2 value this year.
8. Mark Ingram – Needs to stay healthy, but Mark Ingram has the talent to be a quality running back in this league. Assuming he partakes in most of training camp, Ingram is a worthy mid round selection.
9. Santonio Holmes – Not a fan of Santonio Holmes and I recomend you take him lower than this. Still, can’t blame Reddog for taking him as he is a proven receiver, just needs to stop acting like a diva.
10. Ryan Williams – With Beanie Wells having his own knee issues, Williams could take over the starting job if he can bounce back from a nasty knee injury that ended his year in the preseason.
11. Ravens Defense – Good defense but the loss of Terrell Suggs won’t help there odds of returning to elite production.
12. Randy Moss – Why not, Randy Moss is had a solid OTA and the 49ers will have to throw more with a tough schedule.
13. Toby Gerhart – Adrian Peterson will slowly be worked back into a feature role and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s inactive to begin the year. Gerhart will be the main option to target behind Peterson.
14. Matt Prater – This could be a nice year for Matt Prater as he has Peyton Manning running the offense.
15. Andrew Luck – A solid backup quarterback as a rookie the Colts have done a good job of resigning Reggie Wayne and drafting two quality tight ends in the draft, to help him.
Sean’s Team (Eighth Pick)
1. Drew Brees – My first selection in this mock draft as I’m banking that Drew Brees won’t be in a long holdout. It’s not as big a deal for a quarterback to have a holdout into training camp, but with Sean Peyton lost for the year, his value will drop if things aren’t resolved by August.
2. Trent Richardson –I don’t care if Trent Richardson is a rookie or that he plays for the Browns. Richardson is one of the more gifted running backs to ever come out of the college ranks and he will be a three down option week one on.
Let us find strength in the stats Peyton Hillis put up in this offense two years ago, as a reason to believe Richardson can have success against the Steelers and Ravens off the world.
Sure, OC Brian Daboll isn’t around like he was for Hillis two years ago, but Richardson still has a decent offensive line for run blocking, and the Browns will be committed to giving him the football. Hey, true bell cow backs aren’t easy to come by these days, so get one while you can.
3. Doug Martin –Who gives a flip that Doug Martin is a rookie. The guy projects as a three down back and clearly has the skill set to be a star right off the bat. Martin is better than LeGarrette Blount in pass blocking, receiving skills and especially ball security.
Many seem to have Martin as a low end RB2 for redraft leagues, on my board he’s standing in the top ten at ninth overall. Take this guy and trust the talent, role and offensive scheme as reasons why he will excel.
Our only main concern for Martin will be game scripts changing because the team is playing from behind, but again as a three down back he will remain in the game and should pickup extra receptions. Were running backs are today I’ll take as many foundation running backs I can get my hands on and I don’t care how many years they’ve been in the league or haven’t for that matter.
4. Victor Cruz – Defenses won’t be caught off guard by Victor Cruz this year, but he’s still going to be a nightmare in the slot as most squads don’t have the personnel to matchup. Yes, Cruz will play some on the outside, but the Giants will move him back to the slotin three and four receiver sets.
It would help matters if Hakeem Nicks could stay healthy as opposing defense will look to him as another option to take away, and at times he will garner double coverage over Cruz. Still, even with an expanded role in the offense Cruz may not have the yardage numbers from a year ago, but we should still expect 1,300 yards and at least eight touchdowns.
5. Demaryius Thomas – In a recent podcast for Football Today, Cecil Lammeytalks about how Peyton Manning has overthrown Demaryius Thomas on nine routes, which is a sign the veterans arm strength is fine.
Lammey also goes on to discuss how Thomas has dominated in OTAs the times he’s watched him.
This will be a big breakout year for Thomas and we shouldn’t view him as some player who is getting extra hype because of postseason heroics. Thomas likely won’t be the top possession receiver on the team, as Eric Decker seems to be the favorite in that regard, but Thomas is the top receiver for fantasy purposes and could be a WR1 this year.
6. Brandon Lloyd –Going in the sixth round, Brandon Lloyd is a terrific value selection. If offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has been good for anything over recent years, it’s making Lloyd a solid fantasy play.
Now Lloyd will have one of the elite quarterbacks in the game throwing to him and if you can snag Lloyd as a WR3 consider it a steal.
7. C.J. Spiller – Will play behind Fred Jackson, but if something should happen to the veteran, Spiller would be a weekly RB2 option in standard scoring leagues. As of now, he’s a worthy flex play in PPR leagues, but only a matchup play in ten team formats without those all important points for receptions.
8. Jason Witten – Should have another solid year, but we always have to be a little concerned about his touchdown total, as Tony Romo tends to favor others.
9. Ronnie Hillman – Love this kid and you need to keep him on your sleepers list as a big time breakout prospect. Hillman has the skill set to be the Broncos future starter, and Willis McGahee is primed to breakdown at any point.
10. Jay Cutler – A quality backup in ten team leagues, I like Cutler as a QB1 in twelve team leagues with his new weapons. Still, we should have some pause about his upside if the Bears offensive line continues to struggle.
11. Rueben Randle – Great opportunity especially with Hakeem Nicks sidelined for awhile. Randle will work on the outside in three and four receiver sets, and may land a starting job if Nicks should miss regular season action.
12. Alshon Jeffery – This is a rookie that could make a nice impact in his first year. Jeffery needs to win a starting job, but he has the perfect quarterback to work with as Cutler won’t be afraid to throw jump passes to him.
13. Doug Baldwin – Nice upside receiver in the later rounds of your draft. Baldwin will be the go to receiver in clutch situations for the Seahawks. Don’t sleep on him.
14. Jared Cook – If Cook could ever produce throughout the season like he does at the end of the year, we would be talking about a top five at his position. Not sure if that will ever happen but he’s a nice backup for your team.
15. Seahawks Defense – Great young defense, and they could be one of the top five in fantasy scoring this year. Tough outer division schedule keeps them as a rotational starter.
Fantasy Football Draft Prep