2013 Rookie Dynasty Draft – WR Rankings
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DeAndre Hopkins HOU (1st RD) –
While Cordarrelle Patterson may have the best upside from a raw skills perspective in this years class, it is Deandre Hopkins that is No.1 on my board. In Hopkins you have the most polished receiver in this class and he should be a slam dunk, week one starter opposite Andre Johnson.
At worst case Hopkins will be a bye week starting option in his rookie year and at best case he’s probably a weekly WR3 play. By next year we should see his floor at WR3, and his upside could blossom as far as a WR1 in PPR leagues, if the injury bug jumps up and bits Johnson again.
Cordarrelle Patterson MIN (1st RD) –
After Hopkins, you should have your eye’s firmly set on Patterson as the next receiver to come off the board. Patterson may a question mark at quarterback, but he will have Greg Jennings, Adrian Peterson and Kyle Rudolph to help take pressure off of him in coverage.
That basically means we will see Patterson in a bunch of one on one situations with a teams second or third-best corner, possibly a safety at times. Yeah, that’s good for this explosive rookie and if your in non-ppr leagues, Patterson should be even more valuable, let alone leagues with kick and punt return points.
Speaking of leagues with kick and punt point opportunities, Patterson should be the top receiver drafted in those leagues, because he will be electric in that area. Add it up, and if you’re the type of fantasy owner who prefers to draft the player with the most upside – regardless of the downside he may present – Patterson is your man.
Tavon Austin STL (1st RD) –
Don’t look to Austin as a receiver that will lineup on the outside often, at least early in his career. Austin should be used as a slot receiver and probably receive some looks in the backfield, much like we’ve seen from Randall Cobb and Percy Harvin in recent years.
As soon as the season begins Austin (like Patterson) will be one of the more explosive weapons in the entire league. Look to Austin as a respectable WR3 option early in the season, should everything go well in camp.
Markus Wheaton PIT (1st RD) –
Another terrific mid-round receiver for the Steelers and by 2014 Wheaton should be starting opposite Antonio Brown. Wheaton will be an instant vertical threat that defenses around the league would be wise to give attention too. I could see Wheaton putting up numbers close to that of Mike Wallace in his rookie year as the third receiver on the depth chart.
When, not if, Wheaton becomes a starter he will have a low-end value of a WR3 play with WR1 upside (especially in non-ppr leagues) in the future. Just don’t expect him to catch for than 65 to 70 passes in any given season.
Robert Woods, BUF (1st RD) –
My goodness the Bills have a talented young wide receiver core after this years draft. While Woods was the first receiver to go in this draft for the Bills (2nd round pick) it might be undrafted Tennessee star Da’Rick Rogers that is the more valuable fantasy option, down the road.
That said, Woods is likely to be a steady target in his passing game and should start opposite Stevie Johnson as early as week one. My only concern for Woods is he has a history of ankle problems, so keep that in mind before you draft him.
The arrow is pointing up for Buffalo and while they may not be a playoff team this year, it should happen soon if this draft delivers on the talent it has.
Keenan Allen SD (1st RD) –
First let me say this, if it wasn’t for such a deep class of receivers this year, Keenan Allen would never have fallen to the third round, even with his injury concerns. I’m amazed Allen fell all the way to the third round even with the group of receivers we have coming out this year, but I’m sure the Chargers were ecstatic to get him at that point.
Malcolm Floyd is just about washed up in San Diego, third year receiver Vincent Brown has to stay healthy and the same can be said for last years breakout receiver Danario Alexander. While Allen has some nagging injuries of his own, he’s the most talented receiver of the bunch and it wouldn’t surprise me if he starting week one.
Factor in that Antonio Gates is on his last legs and Allen’s star remains bright for the future. He still has WR1 potential, especially in PPR leagues, so consider it a bargain if he falls out of the top ten picks in the first round of your dynasty league.
Justin Hunter TEN (1st RD) –
Of the three receivers in this years class that played for the University of Tennessee, it is Hunter that actually gives me the most pause about drafting. All three receivers (Hunter, Cordarrelle Patterson, Da’Rick Rogers) have had some type of character concerns on or off the field.
While it is Rogers that clearly has the bigger red flag, at least fantasy owners know they should target him as a mid-round pick in rookie dynasty drafts. With Hunter, I see a guy that could end up like Kenny Britt, in that he’s got the raw skills to dominate but it doesn’t show up consistently.
Hunter is worth a first-round pick on draft day and that’s why I’m concerned. I don’t think he has the upside of Patterson, but he could be a WR1 in fantasy leagues a year or two down the road. He could also be a WR4 for most of his career, that has us scratching our heads wondering if he will ever figure it out.
Look to Kendall Wright as the clearly No.1 receiver of the future in Tennessee with Hunter as an attractive No.2. With that said, I have to believe Britt will be gone from the team after this year as he’s in a contract season and with the drafting of Hunter in the second round, we know what the Titans plans are likely to be. That is, moving on from Britt.
Stedman Bailey STL (late 1st / 2nd RD) –
Not a fan of Brian Quick and the 2012 second-round pick did nothing to prove me otherwise last season, even though opportunity was on the table to become a productive starter. Look for Tavon Austin to remain in the slot and his former partner in crime at West Virginia will likely beat out Quick in camp to start on the outside.
Bailey has WR2 upside and I think he could hold WR3 value this year, if and when he takes over a starting job.
Terrance Williams DAL (2nd RD) –
We could see the Cowboys move on from Miles Austin next year because of cap problems and the fact that Austin has struggled with injuries over the years. Williams would be a nice compliment player to Dez Bryant as he has the big-play ability to strike from anywhere on the field.
Look for Williams to make an impact as a rookie and with Tony Romo still in his prime, Williams has fantasy starter potential as soon as next year. Hey, a guy that caught 97 balls and over 1,800 at Baylor last year (without RG3) has to be more than just a deep threat, so look to him as a guy with No.1 receiver potential, should Bryant melt down at any point and move on from Dallas.
Quinton Patton SF (2nd RD) –
The 49ers had one heck of a fourth round in this years draft with the selections of Quinton Patton and Marcus Lattimore. In Patton, the 49ers have themselves an electric talent who projects to be a starter as early as 2014.
We should like Patton over AJ Jenkins and expect this years rookie to make a bigger impact, early on.
If that wasn’t enough factor in this story and you know this kid will be dedicated to his craft, and will be a total steal for the 49ers.
Aaron Dobson, NE (late 2nd / 3rd RD) –
The Patriots have struggled in the draft at the wide receiver position, so just because Aaron Dobson was a second-round pick, doesn’t mean he’s a lock for a solid career with Tom Brady as his quarterback. That also means we shouldn’t look bast fourth-round pick Josh Boyce or UDFA Kembrell Thompson and T.J. Moe (Moe wouldn’t be an outside receiver, more backup to Danny Amendola) at our dynasty drafts and beyond.
Dobson can make big plays down the field, something the Patriots have lacked since Randy Moss moved on to the Vikings in 2010.
Josh Boyce NE (3rd RD) –
Give strong consideration to Boyce in the third round as he may be a better fit for what the Patriots want to do on offense. Better in the short to intermediate game than Dobson, Boyce has a chance to earn quality playing time in his rookie year and beyond.
Da’Rick Rogers, BUF (3rd RD / 4th RD) –
If not for his substance abuse issues in college Rogers would’ve been at least an early second-round pick in the NFL draft, and a first round pick in dynasty drafts. Rogers has all the tools to dominate at the next level, and could be a fantasy star. At the same time, he could easily continue to show immaturity and be out of the league before the season begins.
Even if Rogers does have problems this off-season and the Bills move on from him, I would keep him on your taxi squad because he should get another opportunity in the coming years. Again, if he straightens up, he could if big for you at a fair price.
Corey Fuller DET (4th RD) –
Opportunity is what gets Fuller in the 4th round of dynasty drafts this year, but if he should fail to capitalize as a rookie, he might fall out of favor quickly. Second year receiver Ryan Broyles will be two years removed from his ACL next season, and the situation is there for the Lions to draft a high round receiver next year, if Fuller doesn’t flash.
Ryan Swope ARZ (4th RD) –
Love this guys game and I remember watching him dominate Alabama last season; it was impressive. Swope is the real deal and don’t pay any attention to those that worry about his small hands, this young man can play some football.
As sure as Corey Fuller gets a bump in draft value because of a good situation, Swope is dinged because of a bad situation in the early years of his career. But I believe we will see Swope emerge as a consistent fantasy option at some point in the first three years of his career.
Concussion issues in his past are probably the biggest reason he fell into the later rounds of the NFL draft, but perhaps some time away from a full time role will help him in this regard.
Chris Harper SEA (4th RD) –
With Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin and Golden Tate in front of Harper, the rookie will have to wait a couple years before he gets his shot. I think he will receive an opportunity to make an impact, and in a couple of years from now, Russell Wilson’s game should be developed to the point where Seattle is comfortable being a pass first offense.
Marquess Wilson CHI (4th RD) –
Perhaps a little thin for his 6’3 frame and question marks about his football character were the main culprits for Wilson’s slide during the draft. Either way as a 4th round pick in dynasty drafts we should target this talented pass catcher as a potential steal down the road.
Tavarres King DEN (5th RD) –
The Broncos are hurting for depth at receiver on the outside and King will have a chance to be the backup to Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas, as a rookie. That’s good news for King as Thomas has had his share of injuries in his playing career.
Aaron Mellette BAL (6th RD) –
I have Mellette ranked this high mainly because of opportunity in Baltimore with Anquan Boldin gone. The Ravens failed to add anyone significant in free agency so Mellette will have a chance to fight for playing time early, with a host of other young Raven receivers.
Kenny Stills NO (6th RD) –
Big-play ability and a cheep contract are two reasons to believe Stills has the chance to stick in New Orleans and make an impact with Drew Brees throwing him the rock. We need to keep an eye on his performance in camp, but Stills is worth stashing in the later round of your dynasty draft.
Marquise Goodwin BUF (6th RD) –
Don’t be upset because Goodwin is this low, nor should you think I hate him as a player. It’s more that the Bills already have Stevie Johnson and they added Da’Rick Rogers and Robert Woods in this draft as well. Goodwin will have a role in Buffalo’s offense but it’s likely to be a field stretcher and he won’t be on the field at all times.
Good depth receiver for his team, not great for fantasy.
Ace Sanders JAX (7th RD) –
I wasn’t really interested in Ace Sanders but with the news of Justin Blackmon’s four-game suspension, we need to keep an eye on this rookie’s development. Sanders won’t replace Blackmon in the lineup as he projects to be a slot receiver only.
Still, the next offence for Blackmon could resort to a full-season suspension, so Sanders has some value at the end of your draft.
Best Of The Rest
Mark Harrison CHI, Charles Johnson GB, Perez Ashford CLE, Justin Brown PIT, Marcus Davis NYG, Zach Rodgers NYJ, Alec Lemon Hou, Cobi Hamilton , CIN, Keenan Davis, CLE, Kenbrell Thompkins, NE, T.J. Moe, NE, Javone Lawson, ARZ, Marlon Brown, HOU, Connor Vernon, OAK, Alec Lemon, HOU