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2013 Fantasy Outlook: Adrian Peterson

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Photo By: Bruce Kluckhohn / USA TODAY Sports

Photo By: Bruce Kluckhohn / USA TODAY Sports

Adrian Peterson | Minnesota Vikings | RB

2013 Experience: 7th Season

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Fantasy Football Outlook: Yup, I will put my hand up as one of those people that bet against Peterson putting up his normal numbers as he came off a late-season knee injury. Peterson wasn’t on one of my teams last year as I refused to take him unless he fell to the 5th round and that didn’t happen as he was going in the second round of most drafts.

Peterson not only had his normal production but went off for around 2,100 yards on the ground. A ridiculous season for any running back but especially for a player coming off the injury he had and at the time of year it happened.

While I think Doug Martin might have better fantasy production by the end of this year, I’m not going to go against Peterson as the undisputed. No.1 running back to draft in all leagues. If you have the first pick take him and don’t think twice again, enough said.

Rushing Stats Receiving Stats
Attempts Yards TD Rec Yards TD
2013 Projected Stats 352 1,866 13 37 296 1
2013 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: ADP's | Rankings | Mocks | Cheat Sheets + Auctions
Rushing Receiving
Year Age Tm G GS Att Yds TD Y/A Y/G A/G Rec Yds TD Fmb
2007* 22 MIN 14 9 238 1341 12 5.6 95.8 17.0 19 268 1 4
2008*+ 23 MIN 16 15 363 1760 10 4.8 110.0 22.7 21 125 0 9
2009*+ 24 MIN 16 15 314 1383 18 4.4 86.4 19.6 43 436 0 7
2010* 25 MIN 15 15 283 1298 12 4.6 86.5 18.9 36 341 1 1
2011 26 MIN 12 12 208 970 12 4.7 80.8 17.3 18 139 1 1
2012*+ 27 MIN 16 16 348 2097 12 6.0 131.1 21.8 40 217 1 4
Information is constantly changing in the NFL and fantasy player values can change at any moment. Having updated, informative news can help you not just at your fantasy football draft but during the regular season. Feel free to glance at our recent articles to make sound decisions throughout the year.

Welcome to Adrian Peterson’s fantasy football outlook archive. At this section of Peterson’s player page you will notice our past thoughts and advice for fantasy football.

Summer of 2012: Can Adrian Overcome His Major Knee Injury?

A sad day it was watching the finest running back in football go down with a torn ACL, late in the season. Just another reminder even the best players are subject to injury.

While it seemed likely that Peterson was going to start the season on the PUP list, sights of him beating teammates in wind sprints, as of late April, have stirred up optimism he will be ready for week one.

Not so fast, as it will still take time for Peterson to regain the ability to cut and move laterally. It’s possible for Peterson to make it back for week one, but I would figure the Vikings will put him on the PUP list as a precaution.

They just signed him for a long-term contract last September, and it’s not like Minnesota is in the running for a Super Bowl.

Even if Peterson does get back for week one, I strongly urge you not to get too excited from a fantasy perspective as he will likely be in a committee with Toby Gerhart for most of the year.

Current ADP trends have Peterson going as the 9th running back off the board, and I feel that is way too high. If Peterson finds the PUP list, he should be considered a RB3 with a mid-round grade and if he should play week one, he’s a low end RB2 on draft day.

Rushing Stats Receiving Stats
Attempts Yards TD Rec Yards TD
2012 Projected Stats 222 934 7 10 79 0

Summer of 2011: Fantasy Projections

The Vikings offensive line to a noticeable dip in production last season, but I was hoping to see them rebound in 2011. Unfortunately, for Adrian Peterson’s fantasy value his left tackle Bryant McKinnie came into camp grossly overweight and Minnesota was forced to release their long time starter.

Rumors have left guard Steve Hutchinson to take a pay cut because he’s clearly not the run blocker he was in years past, and it’s time to view this offensive line as less than respectable. The loss of Sidney Rice won’t help take pressure off the running game, as he was there one true deep threat that opposing defenses had to pay attention to. The one piece of good news for Peterson’s value came in the trade for veteran quarterback Donovan McNabb, and that will help Peterson as he was projected to have a rookie under center this season.

Heading into the summer I had Arian Foster ahead of Peterson in our rankings, and I’ve gone ahead and bumped Jamaal Charles over him as well. The NFC North only seems to be improving against the run as the Lions now have a strong front seven to deal with, the Packers are one of the best in football, and the Bears enjoyed a bounce back season in 2010.

Peterson will still be a reliable option on your fantasy squad and should go no lower than the third overall selection in most drafts, but I caution you not to expect huge numbers. True, Peterson does have Hall Of Fame type skills, and you never know when a player with the talent he has will rise up and put together a career year. Just look at LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006, as the Chargers were starting a new quarterback in Philip Rivers and runners like Larry Johnson, and Shaun Alexander were taken in front of him.

That year LT posted possible the greatest season of all time for fantasy football as he scored 30 touchdowns and took his game to another level. While I acknowledge that Peterson can rise above deficiencies on his team and excel, I believe Foster and Charles are in great situations and are darn talented in their own right.

Rushing Stats Receiving Stats
Attempts Yards TD Rec Yards TD
2011 Projected Stats 361 1,441 10 36 370 0

June 2011 – Should Peterson Be The First Overall Pick

With Chris Johnson expected to holdout (making under a million, once again) this summer for a new contract, Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster are clearly the first two runners off the board in most leagues. Of the two I have Foster ranked first because I’ve seen him put the full package together of 50 plus receptions, touchdown total of 15 or more, and total yards over 2,000 in season.

While I can understand veteran fantasy owners and experts ranking Peterson ahead of Foster because of his deeper track record of success, I expect Foster to have another great season. The Texans have a respectable passing game and play in an easier division that the Vikings’ project to play in. True, Peterson has had success without a respectable quarterback, but his touchdown total was only ten the season before Brett Favre came to town and that could be a problem once again.

Heading into the summer Peterson ADP value checks in as the second best runner (behind Foster) to select in standard and PPR leagues on Mock Draft Central and the top runner taken at Fantasy Football Calculator. Again, I can’t blame you if you want to run to comfort of Peterson because of the concerns you may have with Foster, all I ask is that you take a closer look at Foster’s situation (and Peterson’s) before you take this veteran first. In the end, Peterson should continue to put up top five fantasy back numbers and that’s good enough to take you into the playoffs.

Please Note: Some of you may notice that I have Jamaal Charles projected stats ranked better than Peterson, but Charles is ranked third on our board. This is mainly because Charles has yet to prove he can score double digit touchdowns, and Thomas Jones presence could hurt Charles chances of reaching at least ten on the season.

May 2011: Early Fantasy Outook – Before Chris Johnson Holdout Rumors

While Adrian Peterson is still a fantasy stud, but I won’t be ranking him as the top running back to select at 2011 drafts for PPR or standard league play. In fact, he will probably be third on the list as Arian Foster is primed for another big season, and Chris Johnson’s new coaching staff plans to give him the football more in the passing game.

Peterson has been one of the top fantasy backs, each season, since he broke out as a rookie in 2007, but I’ve never seen him put together the full package in one year as Johnson and Foster have done. Like the Titans, the Vikings will be looking to develop a rookie quarterback in Christian Ponder, and that means defenses will continue to give Peterson eight man fronts.

Hopefully, the Vikings will dedicate themselves to giving Peterson the football in more creative ways like the Titans will do with Johnson, as it will help him get the football in space. All Day is a great talent, but I don’t view him to be as good on pitch plays and in the passing game as Johnson is.

As for Foster, he’s only had one big season, and I can understand if experts and veteran fantasy owners have a problem taking him because of that, but as noted above, he plays in an offense that is ready to let him succeed, with a passing game (main difference being quarterback) defenses must respect. Throw in the that Foster is still looking for a big contract (un-drafted rookie out of Tennessee), and he has more motivation to have another great year.

Looking at strength of schedule, all three running backs project to face one of the top five easiest schedules to run against this season. That said, I believe the Vikings division is getting better against the run while the AFC South is still going to be one of the easier divisions to run against.

2010 Preview

Even though Adrian Peterson scored 18 touchdowns many believe he had a disappointing year. Sure, he didn’t run for close to 1,800 yards, but he did total over 1,800. Look for Peterson to have another great season in 2010.

2010 Fantasy Football Outlook

2009 Fantasy Year In Review: For all the great numbers Adrian Peterson posted last season it seems people kept talking about his low rushing yardage and fumbles. While Peterson did run for under 1,400 yards, he did improve his reception total to 43 catches for 436 yards.

Beyond the increase in receiving, Peterson also dramatically improved his touchdown total from 10 in 2008 to 18 in 2009. Those numbers are great but Peterson was expected to do the phenomenal like Chris Johnson did. Anything shorter than that was considered by many as a let down for the top pick in many fantasy football drafts last season.

Audio: RB Adrian Peterson | 2010 NFL Fantasy Football Player Rankings

2010 NFL Fantasy Football Player Rankings: The Vikings’ division is starting to become troubling for Peterson as the Lions and Bears have upgraded on the defensive line this offseason. Peterson already has the 12 hardest schedule against the run this year and these two teams improving against the run can’t help his numbers.

Beyond that, I’m a little concerned that rookie Toby Gerhart may take away some goal line opportunities as he is built to pickup those tough short yardage plays.

That said, if Peterson gets Brett Favre back this season it will go a long way to insuring, he is a true fantasy stud once again in 2010. With a great quarterback like Favre defenses can’t focus on the running game as much and that will lead to big play opportunities for Peterson.


– Touchdown Maker

– Pass Catcher (Should Stay Strong With Chester Taylor Gone)

– Playmaker

– Great Supporting Cast


– Needs Brett Favre Back

– Division Improving Against The Run

About The Author

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