2013 Fantasy Outlook: Arian Foster
Arian Foster | Houston Texans | RB
2013 Experience: 5th Season
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Fantasy Football Outlook: Foster’s 2012 campaign was going along fine until the last six weeks of the season when carried the football no more than 16 times a game in five of those contests.
A bad time for fantasy owners as this happened during the fantasy playoffs but he did post 27 carries for 165 yards week 15 against the Colts.
It could’ve been a nagging injury that cost Foster his normal workload but no doubt part of this had to do with the Texans having such a successful season which afforded them the luxury to lower his workload in an attempt to get him ready for the playoffs.
That wasn’t the only reason as Justin Forsett was playing at a level that made it easy to reduce Foster’s workload and the Texans were struggling on defense for part of that time, which put them in a situation to throw more often.
This wasn’t all bad for Foster as we saw his reception total at 12 eight weeks into the season, but he finished with 28 receptions in the final eight games.
Add it up and Foster’s lack of work in the passing game early on and then lack of carries in the later half of the season suggests the Texans are looking to reduce his workload after signing him to a big contract. We’ve seen this trend with Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy as well as rookies Barnard Pierce and Bryce Brown started taking on more work on those respective teams as the season went along.
In today’s NFL, perhaps the best seasons you will see from stud running backs is those years before they sign that second contract for big money. Yes, all three are still RB1 options and potential studs, but don’t be surprised if NFL teams that actually sign running backs to big deals look for ways to ensure those runners hold up through the contract.
Foster already has a calf injury during OTA’s and while he should be fine for training camp we will need to keep an eye on his status, through the summer. He’s still a top five at his position and in the prime years of his career, but it would be a good idea to land Ben Tate as a hand cuff in the late-mid rounds of your draft to ensure you have protection if an injury comes up.
The Texans will likely be one of the better teams in the AFC again in 2013, so we could also see Foster’s role reduced during the fantasy leagues again. Something to think about and that’s why he will be ranked after running backs like Doug Martin and Adrian Peterson on my draft list.
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|2013 Projected Stats||317||1,327||12||32||256||1|
2013 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: ADP's | Rankings | Mocks | Cheat Sheets + Auctions
To help you get ready for draft day you will notice articles for ADP advice, cheat sheets, mock drafts and projected stats for Arian Foster here. During the season, you can also find regular weekly ranking articles at this section as well.
Summer of 2012: Fantasy Projections
A hamstring issue and a twitter escapade caused me to bail on drafting Arian Foster with the first overall pick in one of my leagues, last year. Things couldn’t have turned out worse as instead, I wisely choose Chris Johnson.
Hopefully, you were wise enough to stick with Foster (or at least took Rice or Peterson) and didn’t suffer the same frustration.
Foster did have a minor setback week two, but came back strong after a dominant week four performance against the Steelers. While Ben Tate was in the mix, Foster was clearly the workhorse, as the Texans have completely transitioned from a pass first team to a run first team.
Why not, when you have such a smooth running back in this zone blocking scheme, and it’s now clear that Foster is the an elite fantasy option, with two highly productive years under his belt.
While LeSean McCoy is a close second, Foster will be my top ranked running back (was last year before the injury), and hopefully we won’t have the same drama this off-season. Even if that’s the case, don’t take the bait and stick with Foster as an elite selection.
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|2012 Projected Stats||312||1,510||14||59||554||2|
Summer of 2011: Fantasy Projections
While I respect the opinions of veteran fantasy owners and experts who shy away from a one year star, I’m going to rank Arian Foster as one of the top two runners to take this season. Foster did it all last season and his hard work ethic, and the fact that he’s still makes very little money (un-drafted rookie) will keep him prepared for another great season.
Both Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson are fine running backs but their are more issues around those runners than Foster. Of the two veterans I find Johnson to be the better option to rival Foster as the top running back because the Titans are expected to use him in the passing game, much like they did in 2009. This was a huge draw back for the stud runner as his old offensive coordinator want to pound him up the middle against an eight man box.
Peterson is a great running back but I’ve never seen him put together the full package in any season like Foster and Johnson. Remember, the Vikings won’t have a quarterback that defenses will need to respect and their division will be much harder against the run, this season, than in Peterson’s early days before Brett Favre was on the team.
Considering all the missed time teams and players have to properly prepare for this season, you will want to add as many players that you can that are on teams ready to roll right out of the gate. The Titans and Vikings will go through learning curves, but the Texans are ready to make a playoff push, with potential five scoring offense. While I can understand you might want to take a Peterson or Johnson, Foster is probably the one that deserves to be the top runner taken this season.
8/2011 Update - Unfortunately, Foster lost his dominant run blocking full back in Vonta Leach to the Ravens, but the Texans did add Lawrence Vickers. While Vickers won’t play at the level Leache has in the past, he is viewed as a respectable run blocker so Foster should be good.
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|2011 Projected Stats||312||1,436||13||63||588||2|
August 2010: Tate Done For The Year, Fosters Value On The Rise
Arian Foster had a huge game week one against the Colts and should have a great season. As long as Foster stays healthy he will probably be a top ten fantasy back this season. Few runners these days are feature backs and Foster is clearly one of them. This is why fantasy writers were so high on him after the Ben Tate injury and will continue to be.
2010 Fantasy Football Outlook
2009 Fantasy Year In Review: With Steve Slaton out for the final month of the season, Arian Foster received an opportunity to take a large workload in the last two games. In those contests Foster posted 97 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins and 119 yards and two touchdowns against the Patriots.
This was an encouraging production line from the young rookie out of Tennessee, and he definitely earned himself a roster spot in 2010 because of his success.
2010 NFL Fantasy Football Player Rankings: With Slaton still recovering from his neck problem the team is going to use him as the third down back. This leaves the starting job open to a two man competition between Foster and rookie second round pick Ben Tate.
Tate suffered an injury early in OTA’s and Foster was the lone back for the first month of camp. Upon Tate’s return, he’s impressed the coaches so far. Still, I would give the edge to Foster because he’s been with the team longer and has had proven success already.
In the end, the starting job will be won in preseason and hopefully the Texans’ coaches will shine light on who will start early on. This situation is probably worth staying away from on draft day if their is no clarification because the Texans tend to flip flop with their runners from game to game.
- Opportunities For Touchdowns
- Best Chance To Start
- High Scoring Offense
- Could Lose Starting Job To Ben Tate