2013 Fantasy Outlook: Cam Newton
Cam Newton | Carolina Panthers | QB
2013 Experience: 3rd Season
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Fantasy Football Outlook: Newton failed to show much progression in the passing game in his second year but he did cut down on his interceptions from 17 to 12. Really it was a struggle for Newton in the first half of the season but he was strong down the stretch and that should give us some hope can progress this season.
Problem is Newton has a new offensive coordinator and the Panthers failed to give him much in free agency or the draft in terms of receivers. Steve Smith is getting to a point in his career where we could see him tail off from being the Pro Bowl talent we’ve known over the years.
This is a team geared to run the football and that they will do as long as the game plays out accordingly, or they will find themselves throwing to get back into football games.
That very well could happen against teams like the Saints (I would say Falcons but Panthers always seem to play them tough) and other high passing offenses, because the secondary needs some work.
Add it up and while some people that cover the NFL may hype the Panthers as a potential playoff team, I wouldn’t buy into that thinking when they play the Falcons, Saints and Buccaneers in 6 of their games.
Newton is a worthy QB1 and is still going as a top five fantasy quarterback as I write this post. Consider him around the 5th round of your draft as his rushing numbers will keep him as a weekly starter in your lineup. Just don’t expect his touchdown total to rise past 22 this year.
|Passing Stats||Rushing Stats|
|2013 Projected Stats||3,944||22||14||689||7|
2013 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: ADP's | Rankings | Mocks | Cheat Sheets + Auctions
To help you get ready for draft day you will notice articles for ADP advice, cheat sheets, mock drafts and projected stats for Cam Newton here. During the season, you can also find regular weekly ranking articles at this section as well.
Summer of 2012: Fantasy Projections
Coming into the season Cam Newton didn’t even make my top twenty quarterbacks to select for fantasy drafts. What looked like a run heavy attack with a raw quarterback, turned into a pass first offense, with Newton playing at times like a poised veteran.
As Greg Cosell points out (8:37 minutes into podcast) in a year ending podcast on the Shutdown Corner, “Greatness comes from throwing the football primarily from the pocket,” and “If you can’t throw the football from the pocket, you’ll never be a consistent quarterback in this league.”
I concur with Cosell, and as he pointed out, Newton has shown the ability to play from the pocket, since week one against the Cardinals.
This wasn’t just some gimmicky quarterback who caught everyone off guard with this running ability or some wild offensive scheme; no, this was a player who showed us on film he can play within structure which is necessary for any quarterback to play at a high level in this league.
Feeling Good About The Future
Newton was clearly one of the top fantasy quarterbacks a year ago, but even with his top-notch production, I will likely have him no higher than the fourth quarterback to select on draft day. While I’m confident Newton will be a great quarterback in this league, defenses will bracket Steve Smith and other options (perhaps Brandon LaFell) need to step up for this team to throw the football as they did a year ago.
Newton proved he’s more than a run first quarterback in this league, but if he should struggle (defenses have had a year to watch tape) it will be tempting for the Panthers to lean on the running game with DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert on board.
Since defenses will already give the passing game respect, it should open the door for better production on the ground, if that were to happen Newton may not reach 4,000 yards passing like he did a year ago.
I can’t fault anyone for reaching up and taking this guy as high as the first overall pick, but even his early ADP numbers (2.04 in 12 team leagues) would indicate fantasy owners are showing some pause in labeling him as an elite draft selection. If Newton can have another great season, it’s likely we won’t see him fall outside of the top five overall picks next year.
|Passing Stats||Rushing Stats|
|2012 Projected Stats||3,752||25||16||622||7|
Summer of 2011: Fantasy Projections
While Cam Newton doesn’t figure to be a fantasy factor in 2011, the Panthers are doing a good job of giving him talent in the offense, if it’s just keeping players like veteran receiver Steve Smith. The addition of tight end Greg Olsen provides Newton two reliable targets in the middle of the field as Olsen will team up with Jeremy Shockey.
It looks like tackle Jeff Otah is bouncing back well from an injury that cost him the entire 2010 season, and the re-signing of DeAngelo Williams insures that the Panthers will have a running game to fear. For all the positives in the late summer, Newton will still have a big learning curve to go through and missing OTA’s didn’t help things.
Because of the Panthers situation at quarterback, Newton stands a real chance of being the teams starting quarterback, week one. Again, this is going to be a long season, but Newton’s dynasty value has gone up in recent weeks.
|Passing Stats||Rushing Stats|
|2011 Projected Stats||2,252||11||18||312||2|
June 2011 Outlook
Cam Newton had a breakout season to say the least in 2010 as he led his Auburn to a National Title and won the Heisman Trophy. With great ability and skill, Newton was a shoe in to be a first round pick at the 2011 NFL Draft, but it was his passion for personal and team improvement that seemed to be the attributes that made him their clear choice for the first overall selection on draft day.
While I hold out hope for Newton to be a successful pro, 2011 will probably be a major year of growth for this talented youngster, and the NFL lockout is doing nothing to help him prepare. Furthermore, it looks like veteran wide receiver Steve Smith will be on the move when the lockout ends, as he’s looking to play for a Super Bowl contender.
If Smith does leave, Newton will be stuck with talented but unproven youngsters like Brandon LaFell, David Gettis and Armanti Edwards as his main receivers. Luckily the team did sign tight end Jeremy Shockey just before the lockout started so at least Newton will have someone with an established career to find.
Add it all up and hopefully the Panthers will let Jimmy Clausen play the first month of the season, and establish their ground game before giving the football to Newton. The next few seasons should be time for great growth and development for the Panthers’ offense, and Newton will be left on fantasy football waiver wires in that time.
For keeper leagues, the best we can hope for Newton’s development is that the youth around him continues to mature at a steady pace much like it has in Tampa Bay for Josh Freeman.