2013 Fantasy Outlook: Maurice Jones-Drew
Maurice Jones-Drew | Jacksonville Jaguars | RB
2013 Experience: 8th Season
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Fantasy Football Outlook: Injuries are starting to become a problem for the Jaguars star running back. Jones-Drew’s days as a RB1 are likely over and I’m concerned that he will start to fall apart quickly at this point in his career.
Perhaps it’s a little unfair to put him in the same category with guys like Darren McFadden or DeMarco Murray, because Jones-Drew has proven to be a gamer for most of his career, but we should view him as a solid RB2 but not a low-end RB1.
The Jaguars situation for running production remained solid even with Jones-Drew was down as no-name running backs posted start-worthy numbers in fantasy leagues down the stretch. When on the field Jones-Drew will be a weekly 15 back in fantasy leagues and if he proves me wrong in terms of health he could surprise and have a top ten season at his position.
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|2013 Projected Stats||282||1,224||5||32||256||1|
2013 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: ADP's | Rankings | Mocks | Cheat Sheets + Auctions
To help you get ready for draft day you will notice articles for ADP advice, cheat sheets, mock drafts and projected stats for Maurice Jones-Drew here. During the season, you can also find regular weekly ranking articles at this section as well.
August, 2012: Holdout Continues, Jennings Playing Well in Preseason
Those of you that follow my work know I’ve been a fan of Rashad Jennings for a few years now. A knee injury cost him the 2011 season, but Jennings was back this spring running with the first team. By the start of training camp new Head Coach Mike Mularkey singled out Jennings as a standout player through there OTA camps.
Jennings has been the clear-cut number one option in the running back core without Maurice Jones-Drew around and has the talent to be a starter in this league. In his first preseason action, Jennings looked good, showing a burst on the edge, picking up the hard yards in situations where the Jaguars needed a first down on third and one.
Just before their week two game in the preseason coach Mularkey has now gone on record to tell us Jones-Drew will be worked slowly back into the offense if and when he ends his holdout.
If his holdout ended in the coming weeks, he would probably be first in line for the starting job come week one. However, if he should string this out into September, we would see Jennings start.
This makes sense, as Mularkey we’ve seen running backs like Chris Johnson struggle last year with not only conditioning but a new playbook when he returned.
At this point, I have Jones-Drew just ahead of Ryan Mathews as a low-end RB1 to high end RB2. Again, if he should return by next week, he should have enough time to be the starter to open the season, but after that, fantasy owners will almost have to treat him like a flex play option until he gets up to speed.
If Jennings should start over Jones-Drew he would hold flex play value to start the year. If Jones-Drew is still in a holdout when the season begins, look to Jennings as a low-end RB2 option weekly.
|2012 Projected Stats||279||1,183||8||40||321||1|
May, 2012: Fantasy Projections
Allow me to issue my apologies to Maurice Jones-Drew for a moment:
I’m sorry, what was I thinking, all hail to the mighty little Hercules.
Last year I knocked Jones-Drew, not because of his skill set which is top notch, but because he had microfracture knee surgery during the off-season. With an injury like that I didn’t feel he would last an entire season, but boy was I wrong as he had arguably his best year as a pro.
Rushing title winner, I won’t doubt Jones-Drew again and while Blaine Gabbert is likely to start, at least the Jaguars have upgraded in the passing game to help out. Really, Jones-Drew is so good it doesn’t matter much, as he will still be a feature back and the offense will clearly go thought him.
Summer of 2011: Fantasy Projections
Rumors of a possible knee surgery floated around last August and Maurice Jones-Drew had trouble working out with this fellow teammates. Jones-Drew and the Jaguars’ coaching staff maintained that the star running back didn’t have surgery and was just resting his knee before the season began. Through the first three months of the season, it appeared that this fantasy stud was going to pull through alright as his yardage numbers were still strong despite and down year in touchdowns.
Down the stretch of the season, the Jaguars decided to hold Jones-Drew out of the lineup because his knee injury had started to swell up after games. As the regular season came to a close, we started to find out more about what Jones-Drew was playing through (meniscus tear) and how it could possibly linger into the rest of his playing career.
In January, Jones-Drew underwent a surgery to repair the bone on bone injury in his knee (watch video for more). As noted in the video linked on this page, their can be complications after a surgery like this, and that is why fantasy owners need to be concerned about Jones-Drew’s ability to take on a full load, no matter how he feels this off-season.
Beyond Jones-Drew’s personal health, I liken his situation to that of Michael Turner a season ago with Jason Snelling as his backup. With Rashad Jennings establishing himself as a respectable option, if anything should happen to Jones-Drew it makes the Jaguars’ decision to lesson his load in a game or for a stretch of games, easier, because they have an option that can produce.
Now I’m not suggesting that Jennings is a special talent like Jones-Drew has proven to be but his 5.5 yard per carry average and 26 receptions is a small sampling of a runner who can fill in for a stretch and possibly turn Jones-Drew into a quality No.2 fantasy back in contrast to a top five No.1 option as he is still viewed by many.
Heading into the summer Jones-Drew’s ADP value on Mock Draft Central lists him as the 6th best runner (6.22 average selection) in standard league play and the 6th best (7.24 average selection) in PPR leagues. On Fantasy Football Calculator his ADP value is a little less but still a clear first rounder as the 8th best (8.1 average) running back taken in standard leagues.
Going back to Turner, last season, he stayed relatively healthy through the year and kept Snelling at bay for most games except for a week two contest against the Cardinals. In that game Turner had a mild groin injury and left early in the second quarter and Snelling went on to have a huge game. Turner maintained that he could’ve returned to the contest but the Falcons played it safe and held him out. The next week Turner carried the football over 30 times against the Saints and was clearly fine, but it hurt his fantasy owners that he was taken out the week before.
While Turner’s health was relatively fine for the 2010 season, Jones-Drew may not have such an easy go, and if you take him as a clear number one, it’s likely he will bust for your team. In the end, I will have Jones-Drew as an overvalued / bust option to draft because of the injury concerns and the ADP value that he still maintains.
At best, fantasy owners’ expectations for Jones-Drew should be as a No.2 fantasy back this season but that would make him a third round selection. Currently, he is going much higher than that so look for other options this season.
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|2011 Projected Stats||266||1,197||7||30||265||1|
2010 Fantasy Projection
Maurice Jones-Drew proved that he could be a feature back and last the entire season in 2009. Now MJD is a clear top three fantasy back and will go fast in all drafts this upcoming season.
2010 Fantasy Football Outlook
2009 Fantasy Year In Review: As soon as Fred Taylor left the Jaguars last offseason it was clear Maurice Jones-Drew was going to be at least a top six running back to select on draft day. Only concern for Drew was if he could handle the full load or would he break down like Marion Barber did when he had an opportunity.
In the end, Drew proved to the world that he is capable of being a feature runner throughout an entire season and was a fantasy stud most of the year.
By the end of the season, Drew carried the football 312 times and still had over 50 receptions out of the backfield. This workload allowed Drew to total over 1,700 yards from scrimmage as he plunged through the end zone 16 times.
2010 NFL Fantasy Football Player Rankings: If it wasn’t for Chris Johnson, Mighty Mouse would be the top pick in fantasy leagues this up coming year. Drew may not be on a great team, but it is good enough to make him a productive player. Look for the fifth year stud to have another great year in his second season as the teams feature runner.
– Decent Offense Around Him
– Good Hands
– Touchdown Maker
– Big Plays
– Can Have An Occasional Bad Day
– He’s Too Short? LOL