While many of you will likely play on ESPN, NFL.com or other major sites, and choose players on a week to week basis, some of you are actually drafting for all players combined off the 12 eligible teams in the playoffs, in a snake style draft format. Below I have an Q/A email message as a fantasy owner emailed me recently looking for draft advice beyond the wild-card rankings, found on the site.

After listing out the top four players, as I see it, I then go into a quick writup on which teams, I believe will have the best odds of advancing deeper into the playoffs. This is crucially important to factor in, when choosing players, because the more games your players participate in the better odds, you have of winning your league. At the same time, while players like Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, are unlikely to advance past the wild-card round, they will likely have monster stat-lines as they play against the Saints.

One massive game could make up for two or even three games from a lessor player, so even if you feel unconfident about a given team or players odds of advancing, they should still hold some value.

Email Q/A

Question

Playoff league draft this week. League with no pick ups after the draft, and you play until players are eliminated. Who should I go with? Can you get me list of top 4 per position?

Reply

QB’s

• Drew Brees
  Aaron Rodgers
  Tom Brady
  Eli Manning

RB’s

• Ray Rice
• Arian Foster
  Ahmad Bradshaw
  Frank Gore

WR’s

• Jordy Nelson
  Wes Welker
• Calvin Johnson
• Victor Cruz

TE’s

• Jimmy Graham
• Rob Gronkowski
  Aaron Hernandez
  Jermichael Finley

K’s

• Mason Crosby
• Jon Kasay
  David Akers
  Stephen Gostkowski

Team Defense

• Steelers Defense
• Packers Defense
• Ravens Defense
  49ers Defense

AFC Strategy

Basically, I like the Steelers, Ravens and Patriots as the teams that could go deep in the AFC this year. The Steelers get one extra game as they play in the wild card, and with a matchup against the Broncos offense this week, I like them as the top defense.

NFC Strategy

I like the Packers, Saints, Giants and 49ers in the NFC this year. The Packers will be the trendy team to take players from, but their defense and poor running game could get them in trouble.

Who knows what will happen in New York this week, but I figure the Giants will come out on top, as the Falcons tend to lose against quality out door teams. That means if the Saints win, the Giants will play the Packers. Even if they lose that game, you’ll get some solid production in two high-scoring  games.

The Saints get a great matchup this week and will then head out to San Francisco. That game will be an interesting one, and because I’m a 49ers fan, I will be pulling for the home team, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they lose. Should be a close one, but basically because of this matchup I don’t like Chris Ivory over Darren Sproles.

As for the 49ers, they have the defense and special teams to beat both the Saints and Packers, but do they have enough offense? That’s the gamble when selecting anyone from this team, because if not, they could be a one a done team.

Last Updated – January 3rd

Wild Card Rankings – QB | RB | WR | TE | K/D | Sites To Play Playoff FF

2012 Playoff Cheat Sheet

Foster, Johnson and Adrian Peterson are all the ideal top three, but even they have drawbacks as Foster has a bum hamstring, Johnson could be an injury risk after holding out so late and Peterson has arguably the worst offensive line in football.

Standard Redraft Cheat Sheets: Overall | Tier | Auction Values

PPR Cheat Sheets: Overall | Tier | Auction Values

Should You Select Johnson with the First Pick of Your Draft?

With Chris Johnson agreeing to terms on a new deal, I’ve moved him up to the No. 2 back on our recent cheat sheets for standard and PPR scoring leagues. It’s just a matter of who you feel confident in taking at this point, however, because other runners like Peterson, Jamaal Charles and Ray Rice are worthy top picks.

While Johnson late return to camp is a little concerning for his health, if there’s a running back that can remain unaffected on the field from missing time, it’s Johnson. Talents like Barry Sanders and Bo Jackson never seemed to have problems when they would miss time just before a season.

In Jackson’s case, he did it every year as he would play a full season of baseball with the Royals and then play with the Raiders at some point in October. Sanders had a contract holdout one year that went deeper than Johnson’s, and he had one of his best seasons that year.

Johnson is a pure talent, and he keeps his body in tip-top shape. Don’t be surprised if he runs for over 100 yards and scores a touchdown, week one against the Jaguars.

Don’t Forget About Joe!

After a semi-disappointing season from Joe Flacco, it seems like many fantasy owners are failing to give him a chance to start in leagues as deep as 14 teams. Recent ADP trends have Flacco going as the 16th quarterback off the board in standard and PPR leagues, and I feel the hate on Flacco has gone too far.

While Flacco has his share of troubles last year, fantasy owners should have seen it coming as the Ravens were counting on Donte Stallworth to be the main deep threat in the offense.

Stallworth failed to produce, and Baltimore’s offense became predictable as defenses could cheat up on the short routes and bring a safety up in the box to stuff the run. Not only did Flacco struggle at times, but the Ravens failed to run for over four yards per carry as an offense.

Enter Lee Evans, and the Ravens finally have the balance in their offense needed to make Flacco as weekly starter in 12-team leagues and maybe even 10-team leagues.

At the end of the day, what does it hurt you to target Flacco as a respectable backup in the later rounds of your draft?

Arian Foster’s Health

Is Arian Foster still the top back to draft in fantasy leagues? Well, it depends, on how many teams you have in your league and how prepared you are to have a strong draft in the later rounds. I would look to Foster as the top running back to take if your in a league of ten teams or fewer.

The deeper the league, the harder it is to roll the dice on Foster, because the talent is going to be spread out and it won’t be easy to acquire solid depth running backs like Tim Hightower, Marshawn Lynch or Joseph Addai.

Mario Manningham Before Dwayne Bowe?

In a recent experts PPR league, a fantasy expert I have much respect for selected Mario Manningham in the fourth round over Dwayne Bowe. Even Dez Bryant went in the third round, and I have to wonder if the hate for Bowe has gotten seriously out of hand.

I’ve had Bowe as a top ten receiver for standard and PPR leagues throughout the summer, but I must admit, I’ve selected him consistently as my No.2 receiver in live drafts. It’s not that Bowe isn’t worth a WR-1 but more that I know he’s a good chance of sliding back to me as was the case in this twelve team draft.

While Bryant and Manningham are nice upside receivers, Bowe did lead the league with 15 touchdowns a year ago. True, Matt Cassel is his quarterback, but the only receiver Cassel is comfortable with is Bowe, and he will likely benefit from the situation with an inflated amount of targets.

With offensive coordinator Charlie Weis gone, Cassel will look to Bowe when passing plays breakdown.

Many have knocked Bowe for his inconsistency from a year ago, but the Chiefs were running the football early in the season, and as defenses were forced to suck in their safeties to stop the run, Cassel and Bowe took advantage.

In the later part of the season, Bowe struggled for a few weeks but that was mainly because Cassel had an emergency appendectomy. While I don’t expect Bowe to repeat his 15 touchdowns, don’t be surprised if he finishes the season with over 80 receptions and up to 1,300 yards.

More 2011 Fantasy Football Draft Tips

Rankings / Outlooks | Projected Stats | ADP Values |Cheat Sheets | Mock Drafts

Below I have a quick write up for a few different league styles with our various cheat sheets attached like our top 200 players, tier, auction and by position cheat sheets for you to download. Good luck at your draft and here’s hoping you dominate in 2011.

Standard Redraft Cheat Sheets: Overall | Tier | Top 200 | Auction Values

Arian Foster Goes Down

It’s a bummer that Arian Foster went down with what looks to be another Grade One hamstring injury in the third preseason game. While I have confidence, Foster will be on the field week one against the Colts, it’s a hard decision to draft him number one overall. My best advice in this situation is that Foster is still the top running back to draft, but if you really like Adrian Peterson or another running back like Jamaal Charles, then by all means draft them.

It’s hard to take the number one pick in the draft, and you feel like your rolling the dice on if that player will be around for your squad. That said, Foster should put this hamstring issue behind him at some point in September, and once he’s ready to go, he’s going to be the best fantasy producer in your league.

Foster will slip in many drafts because of this news, and I would suggest those fantasy owners sitting around the fourth pick, should jump up and down inside themselves if they acquire Foster, because they are essentially getting the top running back in fantasy, and he will likely play week one after all.

Chris Johnson Still In Holdout

Another running back that is proving to be a problem is Chris Johnson as he is entrenched in a holdout who will likely last into the season. Johnson is grossly underpaid and needs a new deal, but the Titans seem reluctant to make him one of the top five highest paid players in the game.

I would take Johnson no later than the late first round to early second round on draft day. It’s hard to find a talent like Johnson in that area of the draft, and it all likeliness, Johnson should be back by October at the latest. Again, it helps to draft your teams as late as possible in the summer, that way you have better information when making these tough decisions.

Strategy

Because you’re in more of a league that complements the big plays, receivers like Mike Wallace, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson and Greg Jennings are a little more valuable. These players don’t need to rack up receptions to make them possible WR-1 players and give you better results as you won’t get a point per reception.

Running backs that don’t catch the football much like Rashard Mendenhall also hold better value as they are more of the old-style bell cow running backs that will get the football 25 times a game and will grind out the running yards.

PPR Cheat Sheets: Overall | Tier | Top 200 | Auction Values

Ray Rice First Overall Pick?

It may be hard to believe, but Ray Rice is likely to land as the first overall pick in many PPR leagues in the coming week as Arian Foster is now a health concern. If you’re ready our recent PPR first round mock draft results, I talked about the possibility of Rice begin the top pick if something should happen to Foster.

In that mock draft Rice went as the second overall pick, and wouldn’t you know it, just after posting the article Foster went down with another hamstring injury. Rice’s ADP is right with Adrian Peterson in recent mock drafts done on Fantasy Football Calculator, and I would recommend you go with Rice in this scoring style, if you’re looking to pass on Foster.

Rice will be the teams’ goal line back and has all the tools to be a super star running back in fantasy football leagues. With the added point production for receptions, Rice should be an absolute beast this season.

Strategy

It’s important that you target running backs and receivers that amass a large number of receptions for their position. While I found that you can get away with having maybe one running back and one receiver with low reception totals, and still win a championship, you need to have other receivers that can threaten for 100 catches and a couple running backs that can rack up 50 receptions, to go with those defficent players.

Point is, you don’t want to go after too many big play type receivers and traditional bell cow running backs in this league style because you will be playing at a disadvantage. It’s not out of the question to target a receiver like Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald in the middle of the first round, but I would target running backs like LeSean McCoy before you make that decision.

IDP Cheat Sheet Overall | Tiers | Top 100

D.J. Williams Down

One key IDP linebacker that went down in the third preseason games was Broncos D.J. Williams as he dislocated his elbow as is likely to be out for the first month of the regular season. Williams was a top ten type linebacker a year ago and was likely to be a great LB-2 this season, even with a switch to the weak-side as the Broncos new defensive scheme tends to funnel plays to their side of the field.

This is a big blow to the Broncos, but you can get Williams cheap in the later rounds of your draft, if you choose to do so, and when he comes back he can be an instant starter on your team. I wouldn’t be suprised if he takes longer to recover, but Williams has a track record of being a gamer, so it will be interesting to see where he lands.

Strategy

While linebackers tend to be the top producers in the league, it’s advisable that you target a top defensive linemen like Trent Cole or Justin Tuck as your first IDP player off the board. defensive line is the hardest of the three positions to find consistency, as these players tend to rely more on big plays to score points in your league and that can be sporadic.
Audio – Top 5 Defensive Linemen
Just look at the top defensive linemen from drafts in 2010, as Jared Allen was horrible in the first half of the season, but he did turn things around in the second half and posted his usual double digit sack season. My buddy Matt De Lima had Allen last year and was so frustrated with him he almost cut him off his team, but of course Matt is way to smart to do that and was rewarded with a great end of the year.

Even experienced IDP players like Matt can have frustration with even the best of defensive linemen, but in the end these players tend to give you the numbers you need.

More 2011 Fantasy Football Draft Tips

Rankings / Outlooks | Projected Stats | ADP Values |Cheat Sheets | Mock Drafts

PPR Mock Draft Results – Overall | 1st RD | 2nd RD | 3rd RD | 4th RD | 5th RD |

1. Chris Johnson, RB- Johnson is likely to miss time into the regular season as contract talks are reportedly going slow. Johnson wants to be one of the top paid players in the game and not just the highest paid running back. That said, at this point in the first round, you’re getting a player who could have been the number one overall pick if he wasn’t holding out, so look to Johnson as a value in the later part of the first round.

2. Philip Rivers, QB - I took Philip Rivers higher than his ADP suggest he should go, but I just feel like this guy could be the best fantasy quarterback going. Rivers was unbelievable last season, and it didn’t seem to matter that Vincent Jackson was gone, or Antonio Gates was out most of the second half. With all his pass catchers back in the mix, Rivers is likely to have a career year, and get serious consideration for the leagues’ MVP trophy.

3. Jahvid Best, RB- Great value pick at this point, as it seems many fantasy owners are dogging Jahvid Best for his minor concussion a couple of weeks ago. Sure, Best had a bad concussion to end his college career, but I feel his recent concussion has been way over blown in the press, and has led many to balk on targeting him in the first two rounds on draft day.

With Mikel Leshoure gone, and only Jerome Harrison as a comparable backup, Best will be a feature back when on the field and should have some huge games.

4. Miles Austin, WR – Expect Miles Austin to remain as Ton Romo’s No.1 target in the passing game, but Dez Bryant could cause him some problems, if he’s ready to produce at a high level. I expect the Cowboys to have a big offensive season, and there should be plenty of targets to go around to make both receivers top fifteen receivers.

5. Mike Williams (TB),WR- Josh Freeman clearly favors Mike Williams in the passing game, and that connection will continue to be solid this year. I do expect Williams to go through a learning curve, as defenses start to pay more attention to him, but he should catch around 90 balls this year.

6. Vernon Davis, TE - Don’t be surprised if Vernon Davis has over 1,00 yards receiving as the 49ers are going to use the West Coast Offense.

7. Percy Harvin, WR – Clearly, the No.1 target in the Vikings passing game, Percy Harvin should get at least 80 receptions this year.

8. Marshawn Lynch, RB- Stay away from the Seahawks passing game, but Marshawn Lynch has value with an upgraded offensive line.

9. Joseph Addai, RB – Joseph Addai is at least good for 50 yards rushing, a few receptions and a touchdown in the games he’s on the field.

10. Lance Moore, WR - With Marques Colston coming back from a major knee surgery, Lance Moore has a chance to be the No.1 receiver in New Orleans.

11. Lee Evans, WR - Joe Flacco and Lee Evans look like they’ve played years together already, and Evans is primed for a possible career year.

12. Patriots Defense, D - Don’t sleep on the Patriots Defense as this team has been stock piling young talent in recent years, and the addition of Albert Haynesworth helps the pass rush.

13. Delone Carter, RB – If Addai goes down, this is a name your going to hear a lot about in fantasy circles. Carter is a good looking rookie and will make an impact this year.

14. Alex Henery, K - Look for Alex Henery to pickup right where David Akers left off In Philadelphia and he is a worthy starter in fantasy leagues.

15. Bernard Scott, RB - Cedric Benson is likely to miss time at some point this season, and Bernard Scott looks primed to make an impact. Scott should be the third down back to start the season, and has upside as a deep sleeper.

More 2011 Fantasy Football Draft Tips

Rankings / Outlooks | Projected Stats | ADP Values |Cheat Sheets | Mock Drafts